Son 10 y\u0131lda tar\u0131msal sermayede g\u00f6z kama\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye’de tar\u0131msal br\u00fct sabit sermaye olu\u015fumu cari de\u011ferlerle 22 milyar TL seviyesindeyken, bu rakam 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda 259 milyar TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yani tam %1280’lik bir art\u0131\u015f! Ancak bu etkileyici art\u0131\u015f\u0131n perde arkas\u0131nda daha dikkat \u00e7ekici bir ger\u00e7ek var: Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem i\u00e7inde dolar baz\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme yaln\u0131zca %2,63.<\/p>\n
Bu durumun anlam\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k: T\u00fcrkiye tar\u0131m\u0131nda rakamlar b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, ama reel anlamda zenginle\u015fme neredeyse hi\u00e7 olmam\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
TL ile b\u00fcy\u00fcyen rakamlar, $ ile yerinde sayan de\u011fer<\/p>\n
E\u011fer yaln\u0131zca TL rakamlar\u0131na bakarsak, \u201c\u00e7ift\u00e7i servetine servet katt\u0131, makineler \u00e7o\u011fald\u0131, teknoloji geli\u015fti\u201d dememiz m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Ancak dolar \u00fczerinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, asl\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin tar\u0131msal sabit sermaye birikimi on y\u0131l \u00f6ncesiyle neredeyse ayn\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, iki temel sorunun sonucudur:<\/p>\n
TL’nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli olmas\u0131,
\n Dolar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fim de\u011feri ile TL’nin kullan\u0131m de\u011feri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi.<\/p>\n
Bir \u00f6rnekle a\u00e7\u0131klayal\u0131m:
\nDiyelim ki:
\n1 TL = 1 $
\nve
\n1 TL = 1 kg bu\u011fday<\/p>\n
Bu durumda 1 $ da 1 kg bu\u011fday alabilir. Yani denge sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f olur.<\/p>\n
Ama e\u011fer:
\n1 TL = 1 $ h\u00e2l\u00e2 ge\u00e7erli iken,
\n1 kg bu\u011fday = 1,1 TL olmu\u015fsa,
\nbu durumda TL bu\u011fday kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %10 de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015f demektir. Ancak siz kuru (1 $ = 1 TL) seviyesinde tuttu\u011funuz i\u00e7in bu fark piyasaya \u201cTL de\u011ferli\u201d olarak yans\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, t\u00fcm girdiler i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erlidir: g\u00fcbre, mazot, ila\u00e7\u2026 Hepsi k\u00fcresel piyasaya g\u00f6re i\u00e7eride daha pahal\u0131ya gelir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc TL\u2019nin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrdeki g\u00fcc\u00fc, ger\u00e7ekte piyasaya y\u00fck olarak yans\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Sermaye neden b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc ama zenginlik neden artmad\u0131?<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcyen TL cinsinden sermaye, d\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131k bir sekt\u00f6rde (tar\u0131mda) kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcresel de\u011ferlerle bulamad\u0131. Kur bask\u0131lanarak TL de\u011ferli tutuldu\u011funda, \u00e7ift\u00e7inin birikimi i\u00e7 piyasa i\u00e7in \u015fi\u015fmi\u015f, d\u0131\u015f piyasa i\u00e7in ise etkisiz kalm\u0131\u015f olur. Oysa sermayenin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, bir \u00fclkenin reel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131tmal\u0131; sadece parasal hacmini de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Sorunun kayna\u011f\u0131: Para politikas\u0131<\/p>\n
Bu tabloyu yaln\u0131zca tar\u0131m i\u00e7in de\u011fil, sanayi ve ihracat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc de birebir ya\u015famaktad\u0131r. Kurun yapay bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131, ihracat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc k\u0131rmakta; i\u00e7 piyasada ise \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin k\u00fcresel fiyatlara g\u00f6re pahal\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na neden olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sacas\u0131, TL ile b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck, ama $ ile ayn\u0131 yerde say\u0131yoruz. Bu da \u00e7ift\u00e7inin, sanayicinin, ihracat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n \u201cneden zenginle\u015femiyoruz\u201d sorusunun net yan\u0131t\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7:<\/p>\n
E\u011fer tar\u0131mda verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00e7ift\u00e7i h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u00e2r edemiyorsa; e\u011fer tar\u0131msal sermaye %1280 artmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen tar\u0131msal refah yerinde say\u0131yorsa; sorunu yaln\u0131zca g\u00fcbre, mazot veya tohum fiyatlar\u0131nda de\u011fil, para politikas\u0131 tercihleri ve d\u00f6viz kurunun y\u00f6netiminde aramak gerekir.<\/p>\n
Bu yap\u0131sal sorun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturulmad\u0131k\u00e7a, \u201cgirdi maliyetleri \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek\u201d \u015fik\u00e2yeti devam edecektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sorun maliyetlerde de\u011fil, paran\u0131n de\u011ferinde…<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Son 10 y\u0131lda tar\u0131msal sermayede g\u00f6z kama\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye’de tar\u0131msal br\u00fct sabit sermaye olu\u015fumu cari de\u011ferlerle 22 milyar TL seviyesindeyken, bu rakam 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda 259 milyar TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yani tam %1280’lik bir art\u0131\u015f! Ancak bu etkileyici art\u0131\u015f\u0131n perde arkas\u0131nda daha dikkat \u00e7ekici bir ger\u00e7ek var: Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem i\u00e7inde dolar …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3451,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-tarim-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3450\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}