Son y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrkiye tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, say\u0131sal b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerle s\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Ancak nominal b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ip reel verilere, yani enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferlere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bamba\u015fka bir tablo kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Tar\u0131msal Net Sermaye Stoku bu durumun en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6rneklerinden biri.<\/p>\n
Nominal Art\u0131\u015f Y\u00fcksek: Ama Ger\u00e7ekten Zenginle\u015ftik mi?<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye’nin Tar\u0131msal Net Sermaye Birikimi\/Stoku, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari fiyatlarla 243,373 milyar TL idi. 2023\u2019e geldi\u011fimizde bu rakam 2,131 trilyon TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Yani y\u00fczde 876 gibi y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fczeysel olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ba\u015far\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir. Ancak burada kritik bir soru devreye giriyor: Bu art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ek bir zenginle\u015fmeye mi i\u015faret ediyor, yoksa sadece enflasyonun bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 m\u0131?<\/p>\n
Reel De\u011ferlerle Ger\u00e7ek Tablo: Y\u00fczde 25 Kay\u0131p<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 hesaplamay\u0131 sabit fiyatlarla, yani 2015=100 baz al\u0131narak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda durum dramatik \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fiyor:<\/p>\n
2013 y\u0131l\u0131 reel sermaye stoku: 285,357 milyar TL
\n 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 reel sermaye stoku: 214,442 milyar TL<\/p>\n
Bu verilere g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 24,85 oran\u0131nda bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f. Yani tar\u0131mda net sermaye birikimimiz, enflasyon etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda neredeyse d\u00f6rtte bir oran\u0131nda erimi\u015f durumda. Ba\u015fka bir ifadeyle, sermaye ara\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc fiyatlar\u0131 \u015fi\u015fmi\u015f olabilir ama ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferleriyle y\u00fczde 25 kay\u0131ptay\u0131z.<\/p>\n
100 TL ile 4 Birimlik Yat\u0131r\u0131m Yerine 3 Birim Alabiliyoruz<\/p>\n
Bu durumun prati\u011fe yans\u0131mas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a net:<\/p>\n
2013\u2019te 100 TL ile 4 birimlik yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labiliyorken, 2023\u2019te ayn\u0131 parayla yaln\u0131zca 3 birimlik yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labiliyor. Yani 2023\u2019te tar\u0131ma aktar\u0131lan sermaye, ge\u00e7mi\u015fe g\u00f6re nominal olarak daha b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de reel anlamda daha az \u00fcretim arac\u0131 al\u0131nabiliyor.<\/p>\n
Reel Denge \u0130\u00e7in y\u00fczde 876 De\u011fil, y\u00fczde 1168 Art\u0131\u015f Gerekirdi<\/p>\n
Veriler g\u00f6steriyor ki, 2013\u2019teki tar\u0131msal net sermaye birikimimizi 2023\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yabilmek i\u00e7in nominal art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 876 de\u011fil, en az y\u00fczde 1168 olmas\u0131 gerekirdi. Ancak bu \u015fekilde, 2015 bazl\u0131 fiyatlarla reel anlamda bir \u201cs\u0131f\u0131r de\u011fi\u015fim\u201d noktas\u0131na ula\u015fabilir, sermayemizi oldu\u011fu gibi koruyabilirdik.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7: Say\u0131lar B\u00fcy\u00fcse de Ger\u00e7ek De\u011fer K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor<\/p>\n
\u00d6zetle, sermaye birikimi konusunda say\u0131sal b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7meden yap\u0131lacak analizler yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. Paran\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fim de\u011feri artm\u0131\u015f olabilir, ancak kullan\u0131m de\u011feri azald\u0131ysa zenginle\u015fme de\u011fil, fakirle\u015fme ya\u015fan\u0131yordur.<\/p>\n
Yani elimizdeki yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011feri b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ama ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferleri ile y\u00fczde 25 zararday\u0131z.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Son y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrkiye tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, say\u0131sal b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerle s\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Ancak nominal b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ip reel verilere, yani enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferlere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bamba\u015fka bir tablo kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Tar\u0131msal Net Sermaye Stoku bu durumun en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6rneklerinden biri. Nominal Art\u0131\u015f Y\u00fcksek: Ama Ger\u00e7ekten Zenginle\u015ftik mi? T\u00fcrkiye’nin Tar\u0131msal Net Sermaye Birikimi\/Stoku, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari fiyatlarla 243,373 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3475,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-tarim-haberleri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3474","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3474"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3474\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3474"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3474"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/topraktaumutvar.com.tr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3474"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}